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Memo
To: Members of the ANES Community
From: Nancy Burns and Donald Kinder
Re: ANES Announcement: APSA Meeting, 2004 Studies, etc.
Date: August 18, 2004

Dear ANES Community,

We would like to invite you to the NES Public Meeting at the American Political Science Association (APSA) Annual Meeting in Chicago. We are scheduled for Saturday, September 4th at 10:00 a.m. in the Hilton Chicago (not the Palmer House Hilton), Room 4G. At the meeting we will provide you an update concerning the ANES 2004 face-to-face time series study, and announce a post-election telephone study of the 2000/2002 panel, among other items. In the meanwhile, we include a few of the details of these studies here.

* The Time Series Study *

In the fall of 2004, ANES will carry out its time series election study before, and then, again, immediately after the 2004 Presidential election. The study will, in part, maintain and extend the ANES time series by collecting data on Americans' basic political beliefs, allegiances, and behaviors - what we refer to locally as "Core". Core includes aspects of political belief and action so basic to the understanding of politics that they must be monitored at every election, no matter the nature of the specific campaign or the broader setting. Core consists of: (1) attachments to the parties; (2) evaluations of incumbents and their challengers; (3) opinions on political issues; (4) ideological identification and political values; (5) general attitudes toward democratic procedure and the political system; (6) engagement and participation in politics; (7) immersion in mass media; (8) identification with and attitude toward social groups; and (9) social background.

Like its predecessors, the 2004 ANES will be divided between questions necessary in tracking long-term trends and those necessary to understand the particular political moment of 2004. The study will carry special instrumentation on American's views on foreign policy, on the war on terrorism, and on the Iraq War and its consequences. It will extend the experiment on the measurement of voter turnout begun in 2002. It will carry expanded instrumentation on inflation, immigration, gender politics, and gay and lesbian politics. We are especially pleased that it will carry the Comparative Studies of Electoral System's Module 2 on representation and accountability.

We plan to interview a probability sample of Americans of voting age both before Election Day and then again afterwards. 1200 Americans will be questioned on average for 55 minutes by our professional staff before the election; some 85% of these will be re-interviewed by the same staff after the election, again for an average of about 60 minutes.

The time-series study is supported through funds provided by the National Science Foundation and the University of Michigan (the Center for Political Studies, the Department of Political Science, the Survey Research Center, the Institute for Social Research, and the Provost).

* The Completion of the 2000-2002-2004 Panel Study *

We are currently seeking funding to complete the 2000-2002-2004 Panel Study. Our intention is to re-interview a sample of voting age Americans in the fall of 2004, immediately after the presidential election. These respondents were first questioned by the National Election Study in the fall of 2000 and then again in the fall of 2002. Interviewing this sample one last time, at the climax of the 2004 presidential campaign, will make possible a uniquely valuable analysis of the political consequences of historic events. We know a great deal about this sample - what they thought about politics and society and the place of the United States in the world - before history intruded so forcefully on their lives: before the unprecedented election contest of 2000 and before the terrorist attack of September 11th. We know, from the 2002 interviews, what sense they began to make of these events. Interviewing the same people again in 2004 will enable us to complete the story, to trace out the political implications of the turbulent history of the last four years. Such implications include Americans' willingness to participate in politics, their satisfaction with democratic institutions, their support for an ongoing war on terrorism, and in light of the changed landscape of international politics, the priority they assign to such domestic matters as growth, deficits, and inequality. We have secured most of the funding we need to carry out this last phase of the 2000-2002-2004 study from the University of Michigan, and we are currently seeking the rest.

Given our experience with designs of this sort, we expect to successfully re-interview some 65% of those questioned in the pre-election interview in 2002, yielding a projected sample size of 772 interviews. We plan to carry out these interviews immediately following the presidential elections. Interviews will be taken over the telephone and will last, on average, about 45 minutes.

The 2004 phase of the panel study will be given in large part to standard survey questions that capture the likely consequences of the election contest of 2000 and the terrorist attack of September 11th, as understood and interpreted by ordinary Americans. This will include instrumentation on participation in political and civic life, satisfaction with democratic institutions, support for administration policy, views on Afghanistan, Iraq, and homeland security. The survey will also include instrumentation (some repeated from the 2000 or 2002 interviews) on domestic considerations likely to be emphasized by the opposition Democratic Party during the campaign: employment, deficits, increasing inequality, among others.

* Access to the Instruments *

A draft of the survey instrument for the pre-election face-to-face study is already available on our website on the ANES 2004 study page at: http://www.electionstudies.org/studypages/2004prepost/2004prepost.htm

* Would You Like to Receive Notification of the Advance Release of these Data? *

To receive notice of the advance data release for the 2004 ANES, please join our mailing list using the handy form on our website at: http://www.electionstudies.org/joinmail.htm

* ANES Fellows *

Congratulations to Sara Binzer Hobolt (Cambridge University) and Keiko Ono (Georgetown University), ANES Fellows for the 2004-2004 academic year! Welcome!

We hope to see you in Chicago!

Best regards,

Nancy Burns, Principal Investigator
Donald Kinder, Co-Principal Investigator
American National Election Studies (NES)
http://www.electionstudies.org
anes@electionstudies.org