The ANES Guide to Public Opinion and Electoral Behavior

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Time of Presidential Election Vote Decision 1948-2004
PERCENT AMONG DEMOGRAPHIC GROUPS WHO RESPONDED :      'Knew All Along/ When Candidate Announced'


  % OF GROUP: '48 '52 '54 '56 '58 '60 '62 '64 '66 '68 '70 '72 '74 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04
Males 45 38 ** 59 ** 28 ** 41 ** 39 ** 43 ** 33 ** 40 ** 53 ** 34 ** 37 ** 49 ** 43 ** 53
Females 37 33 ** 61 ** 33 ** 41 ** 33 ** 45 ** 34 ** 41 ** 52 ** 30 ** 42 ** 52 ** 46 ** 57
  '48 '52 '54 '56 '58 '60 '62 '64 '66 '68 '70 '72 '74 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04
Whites non-Hispanic 41 35 ** 60 ** 29 ** 39 ** 34 ** 44 ** 32 ** 38 ** 52 ** 30 ** 38 ** 50 ** 43 ** 58
Black non-Hispanic 42 44 ** 52 ** 57 ** 64 ** 54 ** 43 ** 42 ** 60 ** 56 ** 36 ** 50 ** 59 ** 57 ** 51
Hispanic ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** 75 ** 63 ** 35 ** 44 ** 44 ** 40 ** 43 ** 50 ** 37 ** 34
Race oth/mult non-Hisp ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** 0 ** 22 ** 24 ** 29 ** 37 ** 39 ** 43 ** 54 ** 50 ** 61
  '48 '52 '54 '56 '58 '60 '62 '64 '66 '68 '70 '72 '74 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04
Grade Sch./Some High Sch. 49 43 ** 69 ** 43 ** 54 ** 50 ** 55 ** 47 ** 57 ** 52 ** 35 ** 54 ** 48 ** 63 ** 37
High School Diploma 37 32 ** 58 ** 26 ** 39 ** 35 ** 43 ** 34 ** 42 ** 52 ** 30 ** 41 ** 52 ** 41 ** 54
Some College, no Degree 35 30 ** 55 ** 24 ** 40 ** 28 ** 41 ** 28 ** 40 ** 51 ** 29 ** 35 ** 49 ** 44 ** 54
College Degree/ Post-grad ** 35 ** 55 ** 29 ** 29 ** 26 ** 42 ** 28 ** 32 ** 53 ** 35 ** 39 ** 50 ** 47 ** 60
  '48 '52 '54 '56 '58 '60 '62 '64 '66 '68 '70 '72 '74 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04
Income 0-16 Percentile 47 47 ** 64 ** 51 ** 57 ** 49 ** 52 ** 45 ** 52 ** 45 ** 42 ** 45 ** 53 ** 44 ** 55
Income 17-33 Percentile 42 34 ** 66 ** 32 ** 45 ** 35 ** 52 ** 41 ** 45 ** 48 ** 32 ** 44 ** 53 ** 43 ** 50
Income 34-67 Percentile 42 31 ** 55 ** 31 ** 39 ** 35 ** 42 ** 30 ** 39 ** 51 ** 31 ** 37 ** 49 ** 46 ** 53
Income 68-95 Percentile 39 32 ** 58 ** 25 ** 34 ** 29 ** 39 ** 30 ** 36 ** 55 ** 29 ** 38 ** 46 ** 43 ** 65
Income 96-100 Percentile 44 50 ** 66 ** 23 ** 37 ** 34 ** 49 ** 27 ** 37 ** 58 ** 37 ** 34 ** 55 ** 49 ** 59
  '48 '52 '54 '56 '58 '60 '62 '64 '66 '68 '70 '72 '74 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04
Professionals ** 38 ** 56 ** 23 ** 33 ** 31 ** 45 ** 28 ** 42 ** 53 ** 34 ** 35 ** 51 ** 46 ** 58
White Collar ** 24 ** 60 ** 28 ** 38 ** 37 ** 42 ** 29 ** 38 ** 52 ** 26 ** 39 ** 45 ** 44 ** 57
Blue Collar ** 39 ** 58 ** 35 ** 45 ** 34 ** 45 ** 40 ** 39 ** 51 ** 34 ** 42 ** 53 ** 42 ** 53
Unskilled ** 38 ** 66 ** 39 ** 63 ** 50 ** 50 ** 14 ** 33 ** 56 ** 50 ** 39 ** 29 ** 41 ** 50
Farmers ** 39 ** 72 ** 23 ** 69 ** 46 ** 54 ** 40 ** 44 ** 50 ** 40 ** 38 ** 54 ** 42 ** 38
Housewives ** 34 ** 61 ** 35 ** 39 ** 38 ** 46 ** 35 ** 49 ** 53 ** 28 ** 47 ** 59 ** 53 ** 60
  '48 '52 '54 '56 '58 '60 '62 '64 '66 '68 '70 '72 '74 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04
Union Households 41 37 ** 57 ** 32 ** 47 ** 32 ** 39 ** 32 ** 38 ** 45 ** 27 ** 40 ** 50 ** 41 ** 53
Non-Union Households 41 34 ** 61 ** 31 ** 39 ** 36 ** 46 ** 33 ** 42 ** 54 ** 33 ** 39 ** 50 ** 45 ** 56
  '48 '52 '54 '56 '58 '60 '62 '64 '66 '68 '70 '72 '74 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04
South ** 37 ** 59 ** 23 ** 49 ** 50 ** 49 ** 36 ** 47 ** 56 ** 39 ** 44 ** 51 ** 53 ** 57
Nonsouth ** 35 ** 60 ** 33 ** 39 ** 31 ** 43 ** 32 ** 38 ** 51 ** 29 ** 38 ** 50 ** 41 ** 55
  '48 '52 '54 '56 '58 '60 '62 '64 '66 '68 '70 '72 '74 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04
Born 1991 or later ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** **
Born 1975-1990 ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** 33 ** 25 ** 27 ** 50
Born 1959-1974 ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** 36 ** 39 ** 31 ** 35 ** 50 ** 42 ** 55
Born 1943-1958 ** ** ** ** ** ** ** 30 ** 16 ** 40 ** 26 ** 34 ** 50 ** 32 ** 38 ** 47 ** 48 ** 54
Born 1927-1942 29 23 ** 52 ** 25 ** 34 ** 29 ** 39 ** 27 ** 35 ** 53 ** 30 ** 40 ** 56 ** 49 ** 64
Born 1911-1926 37 27 ** 56 ** 26 ** 39 ** 37 ** 44 ** 37 ** 48 ** 58 ** 35 ** 47 ** 57 ** 52 ** 60
Born 1895-1910 42 36 ** 63 ** 35 ** 46 ** 47 ** 58 ** 53 ** 62 ** 62 ** 31 ** 60 ** 61 ** 17 ** **
Born before 1895 47 53 ** 70 ** 45 ** 59 ** 53 ** 66 ** 50 ** 40 ** 0 ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** **
  '48 '52 '54 '56 '58 '60 '62 '64 '66 '68 '70 '72 '74 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04
Democrats (incl leaners) ** 32 ** 56 ** 32 ** 46 ** 38 ** 38 ** 33 ** 40 ** 46 ** 32 ** 37 ** 54 ** 46 ** 54
Independents ** 30 ** 43 ** 21 ** 40 ** 25 ** 39 ** 16 ** 30 ** 39 ** 17 ** 34 ** 20 ** 11 ** 32
Republicans (incl leaners) ** 40 ** 70 ** 32 ** 31 ** 34 ** 53 ** 38 ** 44 ** 61 ** 34 ** 44 ** 49 ** 49 ** 60
  '48 '52 '54 '56 '58 '60 '62 '64 '66 '68 '70 '72 '74 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04
Liberals ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** 44 ** 30 ** 31 ** 47 ** 33 ** 39 ** 57 ** 42 ** 61
Moderates ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** 41 ** 31 ** 36 ** 48 ** 25 ** 33 ** 39 ** 33 ** 43
Conservatives ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** 46 ** 33 ** 41 ** 60 ** 36 ** 43 ** 53 ** 47 ** 61

    ___   (underline) indicates 50 or fewer total respondents within group
    **     indicates question not asked or no cases within group
....................

Table 9A.3.1
Source: The American National Election Studies
Link to the ASCII text version of this table
NOTE: variable used for race grouping has changed. See Table 1A.3

(Table generated: 26OCT15)