The ANES Guide to Public Opinion and Electoral Behavior

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Expected Closeness of Presidential Race 1952-2012

  '52 '54 '56 '58 '60 '62 '64 '66 '68 '70 '72 '74 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '08 '12
Will Win by Quite a Bit: 25 ** 31 ** 16 ** 51 ** 25 ** 64 ** 17 ** 17 ** 49 ** 26 ** 18 ** 47 ** 14 ** 18 21 18
Close Race : 75 ** 69 ** 84 ** 49 ** 75 ** 36 ** 83 ** 83 ** 51 ** 74 ** 82 ** 53 ** 86 ** 82 79 82
N   1418   1334   1411   1241   1192   2359   2377   1320   2110   1925   2395   1689   1777   1142 2280 5835

PERCENTAGE WITHIN STUDY YEAR
Table 6D.9
Source: The American National Election Studies
Link to the ASCII text version of this table  
Link to see 2012 data by mode  


QUESTION TEXT:

(IF R PREDICTS A WINNER IN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION:) "Do you think it
will be a close race or will {R's predicted winning candidate} win
by quite a bit?" 1980-later: (IF R REPLIES "DK" WHO WILL WIN
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION:) "Do you thing the presidential race will be
close or will one candidate win by quite a bit?"


Graph of Response:


Percent among demographic groups who responded:

 
 
NOTE: 2012 data are for the combined (face-to-face and internet) sample.

This question is variable VCF0714 in the ANES Cumulative Data File dataset.
Consult the Cumulative Data File codebook for complete question text and annotation.
Weight variable VCF0009z was used to produce this table (see weight documentation)

(Table generated: 11NOV15)


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