The ANES Guide to Public Opinion and Electoral Behavior
Time of Presidential Election Vote Decision 1948-2004
PERCENT AMONG DEMOGRAPHIC GROUPS WHO RESPONDED : "During Conventions/ Post-Convention"
'48 | '52 | '54 | '56 | '58 | '60 | '62 | '64 | '66 | '68 | '70 | '72 | '74 | '76 | '78 | '80 | '82 | '84 | '86 | '88 | '90 | '92 | '94 | '96 | '98 | '00 | '02 | '04 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Males | 43 | 52 | ** | 32 | ** | 60 | ** | 48 | ** | 42 | ** | 46 | ** | 45 | ** | 36 | ** | 34 | ** | 50 | ** | 38 | ** | 33 | ** | 34 | ** | 31 |
Females | 49 | 54 | ** | 29 | ** | 55 | ** | 45 | ** | 44 | ** | 39 | ** | 40 | ** | 32 | ** | 35 | ** | 51 | ** | 34 | ** | 28 | ** | 32 | ** | 27 |
White non-Hispanic | 46 | 53 | ** | 30 | ** | 59 | ** | 48 | ** | 43 | ** | 42 | ** | 43 | ** | 34 | ** | 35 | ** | 52 | ** | 36 | ** | 30 | ** | 35 | ** | 30 |
Black non-Hispanic | 47 | 46 | ** | 28 | ** | 32 | ** | 34 | ** | 38 | ** | 42 | ** | 43 | ** | 30 | ** | 34 | ** | 49 | ** | 38 | ** | 34 | ** | 22 | ** | 29 |
Hispanic | ** | ** | ** | ** | ** | ** | ** | ** | ** | 25 | ** | 25 | ** | 36 | ** | 26 | ** | 32 | ** | 47 | ** | 35 | ** | 30 | ** | 31 | ** | 30 |
Race oth/mult non-Hisp | ** | ** | ** | ** | ** | ** | ** | ** | ** | 75 | ** | 56 | ** | 57 | ** | 29 | ** | 37 | ** | 43 | ** | 36 | ** | 23 | ** | 23 | ** | 30 |
Grade Sch./Some High Sch. | 39 | 44 | ** | 23 | ** | 50 | ** | 31 | ** | 32 | ** | 32 | ** | 38 | ** | 24 | ** | 31 | ** | 49 | ** | 32 | ** | 27 | ** | 21 | ** | 40 |
High School Diploma | 49 | 56 | ** | 31 | ** | 61 | ** | 47 | ** | 42 | ** | 44 | ** | 41 | ** | 31 | ** | 36 | ** | 52 | ** | 33 | ** | 28 | ** | 38 | ** | 29 |
Some College, no Degree | 55 | 64 | ** | 38 | ** | 61 | ** | 54 | ** | 44 | ** | 43 | ** | 44 | ** | 35 | ** | 35 | ** | 55 | ** | 39 | ** | 30 | ** | 32 | ** | 30 |
College Degree/ Post-grad | ** | 57 | ** | 36 | ** | 57 | ** | 59 | ** | 56 | ** | 44 | ** | 48 | ** | 41 | ** | 34 | ** | 47 | ** | 38 | ** | 34 | ** | 29 | ** | 28 |
Income 0-16 Percentile | 37 | 42 | ** | 27 | ** | 43 | ** | 29 | ** | 35 | ** | 35 | ** | 37 | ** | 34 | ** | 34 | ** | 45 | ** | 35 | ** | 29 | ** | 23 | ** | 31 |
Income 17-33 Percentile | 40 | 51 | ** | 24 | ** | 62 | ** | 41 | ** | 45 | ** | 35 | ** | 39 | ** | 28 | ** | 34 | ** | 50 | ** | 34 | ** | 30 | ** | 40 | ** | 33 |
Income 34-67 Percentile | 54 | 58 | ** | 35 | ** | 56 | ** | 49 | ** | 42 | ** | 45 | ** | 43 | ** | 33 | ** | 36 | ** | 50 | ** | 39 | ** | 29 | ** | 32 | ** | 32 |
Income 68-95 Percentile | 45 | 56 | ** | 32 | ** | 60 | ** | 54 | ** | 47 | ** | 45 | ** | 43 | ** | 37 | ** | 34 | ** | 52 | ** | 35 | ** | 35 | ** | 36 | ** | 22 |
Income 96-100 Percentile | 44 | 48 | ** | 26 | ** | 68 | ** | 51 | ** | 41 | ** | 39 | ** | 53 | ** | 40 | ** | 37 | ** | 53 | ** | 41 | ** | 31 | ** | 24 | ** | 26 |
Professionals | ** | 55 | ** | 38 | ** | 67 | ** | 56 | ** | 48 | ** | 44 | ** | 46 | ** | 32 | ** | 33 | ** | 48 | ** | 38 | ** | 32 | ** | 32 | ** | 27 |
White Collar | ** | 63 | ** | 25 | ** | 58 | ** | 48 | ** | 40 | ** | 42 | ** | 47 | ** | 34 | ** | 34 | ** | 58 | ** | 37 | ** | 36 | ** | 34 | ** | 28 |
Blue Collar | ** | 47 | ** | 33 | ** | 53 | ** | 39 | ** | 40 | ** | 42 | ** | 40 | ** | 35 | ** | 36 | ** | 49 | ** | 36 | ** | 28 | ** | 33 | ** | 32 |
Unskilled | ** | 50 | ** | 24 | ** | 61 | ** | 32 | ** | 30 | ** | 50 | ** | 61 | ** | 41 | ** | 32 | ** | 36 | ** | 38 | ** | 17 | ** | 24 | ** | 27 |
Farmers | ** | 50 | ** | 23 | ** | 71 | ** | 29 | ** | 41 | ** | 35 | ** | 37 | ** | 28 | ** | 26 | ** | 40 | ** | 33 | ** | 30 | ** | 24 | ** | 46 |
Housewives | ** | 54 | ** | 27 | ** | 51 | ** | 48 | ** | 42 | ** | 39 | ** | 37 | ** | 26 | ** | 38 | ** | 52 | ** | 28 | ** | 20 | ** | 33 | ** | 21 |
Union Households | 44 | 49 | ** | 32 | ** | 55 | ** | 43 | ** | 41 | ** | 47 | ** | 43 | ** | 34 | ** | 39 | ** | 54 | ** | 36 | ** | 28 | ** | 37 | ** | 33 |
Non-Union Households | 46 | 55 | ** | 30 | ** | 58 | ** | 48 | ** | 44 | ** | 41 | ** | 42 | ** | 33 | ** | 33 | ** | 50 | ** | 36 | ** | 31 | ** | 32 | ** | 28 |
South | ** | 54 | ** | 29 | ** | 66 | ** | 43 | ** | 33 | ** | 41 | ** | 45 | ** | 31 | ** | 31 | ** | 47 | ** | 33 | ** | 30 | ** | 29 | ** | 27 |
Nonsouth | ** | 53 | ** | 30 | ** | 55 | ** | 47 | ** | 46 | ** | 42 | ** | 42 | ** | 34 | ** | 36 | ** | 52 | ** | 37 | ** | 31 | ** | 35 | ** | 30 |
Born 1991 or later | ** | ** | ** | ** | ** | ** | ** | ** | ** | ** | ** | ** | ** | ** | ** | ** | ** | ** | ** | ** | ** | ** | ** | ** | ** | ** | ** | ** |
Born 1975-1990 | ** | ** | ** | ** | ** | ** | ** | ** | ** | ** | ** | ** | ** | ** | ** | ** | ** | ** | ** | ** | ** | 22 | ** | 35 | ** | 41 | ** | 36 |
Born 1959-1974 | ** | ** | ** | ** | ** | ** | ** | ** | ** | ** | ** | ** | ** | ** | ** | 36 | ** | 43 | ** | 52 | ** | 38 | ** | 34 | ** | 34 | ** | 27 |
Born 1943-1958 | ** | ** | ** | ** | ** | ** | ** | 60 | ** | 58 | ** | 46 | ** | 45 | ** | 35 | ** | 35 | ** | 50 | ** | 38 | ** | 32 | ** | 31 | ** | 31 |
Born 1927-1942 | 43 | 65 | ** | 37 | ** | 63 | ** | 52 | ** | 44 | ** | 45 | ** | 45 | ** | 39 | ** | 34 | ** | 53 | ** | 37 | ** | 25 | ** | 34 | ** | 23 |
Born 1911-1926 | 52 | 58 | ** | 32 | ** | 60 | ** | 50 | ** | 42 | ** | 42 | ** | 42 | ** | 28 | ** | 30 | ** | 49 | ** | 32 | ** | 27 | ** | 28 | ** | 24 |
Born 1895-1910 | 43 | 54 | ** | 29 | ** | 56 | ** | 41 | ** | 38 | ** | 32 | ** | 34 | ** | 24 | ** | 30 | ** | 51 | ** | 14 | ** | 36 | ** | 15 | ** | ** |
Born before 1895 | 47 | 39 | ** | 25 | ** | 46 | ** | 25 | ** | 33 | ** | 25 | ** | 33 | ** | 20 | ** | 100 | ** | ** | ** | ** | ** | ** | ** | ** | ** | ** |
Democrats (incl leaners) | ** | 53 | ** | 32 | ** | 53 | ** | 44 | ** | 41 | ** | 42 | ** | 42 | ** | 33 | ** | 37 | ** | 51 | ** | 42 | ** | 30 | ** | 32 | ** | 31 |
Independents | ** | 50 | ** | 34 | ** | 64 | ** | 42 | ** | 35 | ** | 50 | ** | 41 | ** | 36 | ** | 36 | ** | 47 | ** | 28 | ** | 29 | ** | 43 | ** | 29 |
Republicans | ** | 55 | ** | 27 | ** | 61 | ** | 51 | ** | 47 | ** | 40 | ** | 43 | ** | 34 | ** | 31 | ** | 51 | ** | 30 | ** | 32 | ** | 32 | ** | 28 |
Liberals | ** | ** | ** | ** | ** | ** | ** | ** | ** | ** | ** | 41 | ** | 47 | ** | 42 | ** | 40 | ** | 49 | ** | 40 | ** | 28 | ** | 34 | ** | 26 |
Moderates | ** | ** | ** | ** | ** | ** | ** | ** | ** | ** | ** | 42 | ** | 42 | ** | 35 | ** | 36 | ** | 53 | ** | 40 | ** | 34 | ** | 34 | ** | 35 |
Conservatives | ** | ** | ** | ** | ** | ** | ** | ** | ** | ** | ** | 46 | ** | 45 | ** | 37 | ** | 30 | ** | 51 | ** | 33 | ** | 30 | ** | 34 | ** | 25 |