The ANES Guide to Public Opinion and Electoral Behavior

Expected Closeness of Presidential Race by Mode 1952-2016


  '52 '54 '56 '58 '60 '62 '64 '66 '68 '70 '72 '74 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '12F '12W '14 '16 '16F '16W
Will Win by Quite a Bit 20
(348)
** 25
(409)
** 12
(219)
** 43
(628)
** 20
(299)
** 56
(1505)
** 14
(393)
** 14
(219)
** 46
(1040)
** 25
(510)
** 17
(433)
** 46
(789)
** 14
(249)
** 18
(209)
** 20
(468)
** 18
(1066)
17
(351)
19
(715)
** 28
(1184)
28
(309)
28
(875)
Close Race 61
(1070)
** 57
(925)
** 64
(1192)
** 42
(613)
** 60
(893)
** 32
(854)
** 69
(1985)
** 70
(1101)
** 48
(1070)
** 70
(1415)
** 79
(1962)
** 53
(900)
** 85
(1527)
** 81
(933)
** 78
(1812)
** 81
(4769)
81
(1652)
81
(3116)
** 72
(3057)
70
(773)
72
(2284)
Don't Know, Depends 19
(337)
** 18
(295)
** 25
(459)
** 16
(229)
** 20
(305)
** 13
(338)
** 17
(480)
** 16
(245)
** 6
(142)
** 5
(105)
** 3
(87)
** 1
(22)
** 2
(30)
** 1
(15)
** 1
(28)
** 1
(35)
2
(35)
0
(0)
** 0
(15)
1
(15)
0
(0)
N 1755 0 1629 0 1870 0 1470 0 1497 0 2697 0 2858 0 1565 0 2252 0 2030 0 2482 0 1711 0 1806 0 1157 0 2308 0 5870 2039 3831 0 4256 1097 3160

Percentage Within Study Year
F indicates face-to-face mode only
W indicates web/Internet mode only
Table 6D.9. by Mode