Expected Closeness of Presidential Race 1952 -2016

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About this trend:

Data Table

  '52 '54 '56 '58 '60 '62 '64 '66 '68 '70 '72 '74 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16
Will Win by Quite a Bit 20
(348)
** 25
(409)
** 12
(219)
** 43
(628)
** 20
(299)
** 56
(1505)
** 14
(393)
** 14
(219)
** 46
(1040)
** 25
(510)
** 17
(433)
** 46
(789)
** 14
(249)
** 18
(209)
** 20
(468)
** 18
(1066)
** 28
(1184)
Close Race 61
(1070)
** 57
(925)
** 64
(1192)
** 42
(613)
** 60
(893)
** 32
(854)
** 69
(1985)
** 70
(1101)
** 48
(1070)
** 70
(1415)
** 79
(1962)
** 53
(900)
** 85
(1527)
** 81
(933)
** 78
(1812)
** 81
(4769)
** 72
(3057)
Don't Know, Depends 19
(337)
** 18
(295)
** 25
(459)
** 16
(229)
** 20
(305)
** 13
(338)
** 17
(480)
** 16
(245)
** 6
(142)
** 5
(105)
** 3
(87)
** 1
(22)
** 2
(30)
** 1
(15)
** 1
(28)
** 1
(35)
** 0
(15)
N 1755 0 1629 0 1870 0 1470 0 1497 0 2697 0 2858 0 1565 0 2252 0 2030 0 2482 0 1711 0 1806 0 1157 0 2308 0 5870 0 4256

Percentage Within Study Year
Table 6D.9.
Source: VCF0714 in the ANES Cumulative Data File dataset, weighted with VCF0009z
Link to see data by mode (2012, 2016)

Percent among demographic groups who responded:

Will Win by Quite a Bit
Close Race
Don't Know, Depends

Question Text:

(IF R PREDICTS A WINNER IN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION:) "Do you think it will be a close race or will {R's predicted winning candidate} win by quite a bit?" 1980-later: (IF R REPLIES "DK" WHO WILL WIN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION:) "Do you thing the presidential race will be close or will one candidate win by quite a bit?"

Note:

2012 and 2016 data are for the combined (face-to-face and internet) sample.

Return to the ANES Guide Index.