Expected Closeness of Presidential Race 1952 -2016
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| '52 | '54 | '56 | '58 | '60 | '62 | '64 | '66 | '68 | '70 | '72 | '74 | '76 | '78 | '80 | '82 | '84 | '86 | '88 | '90 | '92 | '94 | '96 | '98 | '00 | '02 | '04 | '06 | '08 | '10 | '12 | '14 | '16 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Win by Quite a Bit | 20 (348) |
** | 25 (409) |
** | 12 (219) |
** | 43 (628) |
** | 20 (299) |
** | 56 (1505) |
** | 14 (393) |
** | 14 (219) |
** | 46 (1040) |
** | 25 (510) |
** | 17 (433) |
** | 46 (789) |
** | 14 (249) |
** | 18 (209) |
** | 20 (468) |
** | 18 (1066) |
** | 28 (1184) |
| Close Race | 61 (1070) |
** | 57 (925) |
** | 64 (1192) |
** | 42 (613) |
** | 60 (893) |
** | 32 (854) |
** | 69 (1985) |
** | 70 (1101) |
** | 48 (1070) |
** | 70 (1415) |
** | 79 (1962) |
** | 53 (900) |
** | 85 (1527) |
** | 81 (933) |
** | 78 (1812) |
** | 81 (4769) |
** | 72 (3057) |
| Don't Know, Depends | 19 (337) |
** | 18 (295) |
** | 25 (459) |
** | 16 (229) |
** | 20 (305) |
** | 13 (338) |
** | 17 (480) |
** | 16 (245) |
** | 6 (142) |
** | 5 (105) |
** | 3 (87) |
** | 1 (22) |
** | 2 (30) |
** | 1 (15) |
** | 1 (28) |
** | 1 (35) |
** | 0 (15) |
| N | 1755 | 0 | 1629 | 0 | 1870 | 0 | 1470 | 0 | 1497 | 0 | 2697 | 0 | 2858 | 0 | 1565 | 0 | 2252 | 0 | 2030 | 0 | 2482 | 0 | 1711 | 0 | 1806 | 0 | 1157 | 0 | 2308 | 0 | 5870 | 0 | 4256 |
Percentage Within Study Year
Table 6D.9.
Source: VCF0714 in the ANES Cumulative Data File dataset,
weighted with VCF0009z
Link to see data by mode (2012, 2016)
Percent among demographic groups who responded:
Question Text:
(IF R PREDICTS A WINNER IN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION:) "Do you think it will be a close race or will {R's predicted winning candidate} win by quite a bit?" 1980-later: (IF R REPLIES "DK" WHO WILL WIN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION:) "Do you thing the presidential race will be close or will one candidate win by quite a bit?"
Note:
2012 and 2016 data are for the combined (face-to-face and internet) sample.