The ANES Guide to Public Opinion and Electoral Behavior

Expected Closeness of Presidential Race 1952-2016

  '52 '54 '56 '58 '60 '62 '64 '66 '68 '70 '72 '74 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '08 '12 '16
Will Win by Quite a Bit 25
(348)
** 31
(409)
** 16
(219)
** 51
(628)
** 25
(299)
** 64
(1505)
** 17
(393)
** 17
(219)
** 49
(1040)
** 26
(510)
** 18
(433)
** 47
(789)
** 14
(249)
** 18
(209)
21
(468)
18
(1066)
28
(1184)
Close Race 75
(1070)
** 69
(925)
** 84
(1192)
** 49
(613)
** 75
(893)
** 36
(854)
** 83
(1985)
** 83
(1101)
** 51
(1070)
** 74
(1415)
** 82
(1962)
** 53
(900)
** 86
(1527)
** 82
(933)
79
(1812)
82
(4769)
72
(3057)
N 1418 0 1334 0 1411 0 1241 0 1192 0 2359 0 2378 0 1320 0 2110 0 1925 0 2395 0 1689 0 1776 0 1142 2280 5835 4241

Percentage Within Study Year
Table 6D.9.

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Question Text:

(IF R PREDICTS A WINNER IN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION:) "Do you think it will be a close race or will {R's predicted winning candidate} win by quite a bit?" 1980-later: (IF R REPLIES "DK" WHO WILL WIN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION:) "Do you thing the presidential race will be close or will one candidate win by quite a bit?"

Note:

2012 and 2016 data are for the combined (face-to-face and internet) sample.

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